Analysis of Possible Nightlife Scenarios in Urban Public Spaces: A Case Study of the Historical Fabric of Tehran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 PhD in Urban Planning, Kish International Campus, University of Tehran, Iran.

2 Assistant Professor, Urban Design Department, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, University of Art, Iran,Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

Nightlife, as one of the important components of urban quality of life, cultural vitality, and the socio-economic function of cities, has attracted the attention of researchers in recent years. However, the realization of nightlife in public spaces, especially in historic contexts, faces multiple physical, managerial, and social challenges, and most existing studies lack a forward-looking approach. The present study was conducted with the aim of identifying and analyzing potential scenarios of nightlife in selected public spaces of Tehran’s historic fabric, employing a futures studies approach. The research method was qualitative–analytical and based on cross-impact analysis of indicators. In the first step, using the Delphi technique and the opinions of 15 experts, six key indicators were identified: noise control regulations, diversity of nighttime land uses, police presence and supervision, urban lighting and furnishings, organization of events, and nighttime public transport. Subsequently, the different states of each indicator were defined, and potential future combinations were examined using scenario development and cross-impact matrix analysis. The results indicate that nightlife is a multidimensional phenomenon, dependent on the simultaneous interaction of managerial, social, and physical components. Three potential scenarios were extracted: two scenarios with relatively high internal coherence and full consistency, and one unfavorable and unstable scenario. The relatively favorable scenario emphasizes effective regulation, diversity of land uses, active police presence, improvement of the physical environment, and full access to nighttime transport, creating conditions for enhanced safety and social vibrancy at night. In contrast, the unfavorable scenario shows a simultaneous decline in these components, leading to the deterioration of nightlife. The main finding of the study suggests that the sustainability of nightlife in Tehran’s historic fabric requires, more than mere expansion of activities, intelligent regulation, institutional coordination, and integrated, forward-looking planning. These results can serve as an analytical basis for policy-making and planning of nightlife in urban public spaces, especially in historic contexts.

Highlights

  • Six key indicators—namely noise pollution control regulations, diversity of nighttime land uses, police presence and supervision, the quality of lighting and urban furniture, the organization of nighttime events, and nighttime public transportation—shape the future of nightlife in Tehran’s historic fabric.
  • Although noise pollution control regulations have a direct impact on nightlife, their function is inherently relational, and their effectiveness depends on interaction with other physical and social indicators.
  • The physical quality of public spaces, particularly lighting and urban furniture, plays a moderating role between security, police surveillance, and nighttime vitality.
  • Nightlife in Tehran’s historic fabric is not a one-dimensional, activity-driven phenomenon; rather, it is the outcome of a synergistic interaction among institutional regulation, the physical quality of space, and the social–cultural dynamics of the night.

Keywords

References

  • Ashton, K., Roderick, J., Parry Williams, L., & Green, L. (2018). Developing a framework for managing the night-time economy in Wales: a health impact assessment approach. Impact assessment and project appraIsal, 36(1), 81-89.
  • Azizi, M. M. and Ghane, M. (2024). Analysis of factors influencing urban nightlife using cross-impact analysis method; Case study of District 8 of Shiraz. Journal of Architecture and Urban Planning, 17(44), 75-95. doi: 10.30480/aup.2024.5216.2122 (In Persian)
  • Bavinton, N. (2013). Putting leisure to work: City image and representations of nightlife. In C. Gibson (Ed.), Culture and the city (pp. 15–30). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315873138
  • Brands, J., Van Aalst, I., & Schwanen, T. (2015). Safety, surveillance and policing in the night-time economy:(Re) turning to numbers. Geoforum, 62, 24-37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2015.03.008
  • Buehring, J. H., & Liedtka, J. (2018). Embracing systematic futures thinking at the intersection of Strategic Planning, Foresight and Design. Journal of innovation management, 6(3), 134-152.
  • Elshater, A., & Abusaada, H. (2022). Effects of nightlife activities on urban spaces and design: A case study of Cairo, Egypt. City, Territory and Architecture, 9(1), 5. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40410-022-00150-9
  • Carmona, M., et al. (2012). Public places, urban spaces (F. Gharayi et al., Trans., 2nd ed.). Tehran: University of Art Press. (In Persian)
  • Feyzi, S., & Basiri, M. (2020). Examining the importance of lighting in promoting nighttime vitality in urban spaces: Case study of the traditional Maqsoudiyeh neighborhood, Tabriz. Journal of Applied Geographic Sciences, 20(58), 17–34. (In Perssian)
  • Foster, N. (2022). From urban consumption to production: rethinking the role of festivals in urban development through co-creation. Urban Planning, 7(3), 379-393. https://doi.org/10.17645/up.v7i3.5371
  • Grazian, D. (2009). Urban nightlife, social capital, and the public life of cities. Sociological Forum, 24(4), 908–917. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1573-7861.2009.01143.x
  • Ghafourian, Mahsa. (2023). Strategies for Realizing Smart Tourism in Mashhad City.  With a Scenario Writing Approach. Urban Futurology, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 1-29. 10.30495/uf.2023.1973666.1063 (In Persian)
  • Ghodrat Samani, S. and Rezaeirad, H. (2025). Formulation of Strategies to Enhance Synergy between Night-time Life and Smart City in Urban Public Spaces; Case Study: Bouali Street, Hamadan. Iranian Urban Design Studies, 2(1), 141-168. doi: 10.22099/iuds.2025.54370.1042 (In Persian)
  • Giordano, E., Manella, G., Rimondi, T., & Crozat, D. (2019). The spatio-temporal geographies of public spaces at night and their regulation as source of conflict. The cases of Montpellier and Bologna. Espace populations sociétés [En ligne], 2019/1. Mis en ligne le 17 juin 2019, consulté le 20 octobre 2025. https://doi.org/10.4000/eps.8725
  • Gunasekara, R.J.M.N.P. (2001). Study on the urban public spaces in relation to its spatial characteristics and social characteristics [Master's theses, University of Moratuwa]. Institutional Repository University of Moratuwa. http://dl.lib.mrt.ac.lk/handle/123/1159
  • Habitat, U. N. (2015). Habitat III issue papers: 11-public space. New York.
  • Hadfield, P., Lister, S., & Traynor, P. (2010). "This town's a different town today": Policing and regulating the night-time economy. Criminology & Criminal Justice, 9(4), 465–485. https://doi.org/10.1177/1748895809343409
  • Hirschhorn, L. (1980). Scenario writing: a developmental approach. Journal of the American Planning Association, 46(2), 172-183.
  • Hollows, J., Jones, S., Taylor, B., & Dowthwaite, K. (2013). Making sense of urban food festivals: cultural regeneration, disorder and hospitable cities. Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, 6(1), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1080/19407963.2013.774406
  • Jamal Mohammadi Seyed Ahmadiyani, S. H. M. M. (2022). Prioritizing Strategies Affecting Night Economic Activities in Urban Spaces Using Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) Case Study: Street Rudaki, District 10 of Tehran. Journal of Hunan University Natural Sciences, 49(7). https://doi.org/10.55463/issn.1674-2974.49.7.7
  • Jiang, Y., & Hong, F. (2021). Examining the relationship between customer-perceived value of night-time tourism and destination attachment among Generation Z tourists in China. Tourism Recreation Research, 1-14.
  • Jacobs, J. (2019). The death and life of great American cities (H. Parsa, Trans.). Tehran: University of Tehran Press. (In Persian)
  • Kalahor, M., & Zabihi, H. (2018). Foresight of urban project delays using layered cause analysis, scenario planning, fuzzy TOPSIS, and SWOT. Management Foresight Quarterly, 30(116), 185–199. (In Persian)
  • Kapitza, J. (2022). How people get to work at night. A discrete choice model approach towards the influence of nighttime on the choice of transport mode for commuting to work. Journal of Transport Geography, 104, 103418. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2022.103418
  • Kosow, H., & Gaßner, R. (2008). Methods of future and scenario analysis: overview, assessment, and selection criteria (Vol. 39, p. 133). DEU.
  • Nematpour, M., Khodadadi, M., & Rezaei, N. (2021). Systematic analysis of development in Iran’s tourism market in the form of future study: A new method of strategic planning. Futures, 125, 102650.
  • Neto, N. T. (2017). Nightlife, the construction of a subject to geography. Terr@ Plural, 11(1), 31–41. https://doi.org/10.5212/terraplural.v.11i1.0002
  • Lin, V. S., Qin, Y., Ying, T., Shen, S., & Lyu, G. (2022). Night-time economy vitality index: Framework and evidence. Tourism Economics, 28(3), 665-691.
  • Li, M., Tu, W., & Lu, F. (2022). Sensing the Nighttime Economy–Housing Imbalance from a Mobile Phone Data Perspective: A Case Study in Shanghai. Remote Sensing, 14(12), 2738. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14122738
  • McGill, E., Marks, D., Petticrew, M., & Egan, M. (2022). Addressing alcohol-related harms in the local night-time economy: A qualitative process evaluation from a complex systems perspective. BMJ Open, 12(8), e050913. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2021-050913
  • McGuire, J., Evans, E., & Kane, E. (2021). Policing the night-time economy: A systematic review of evidence-based practice. Evidence-Based Policing and Community Crime Prevention, 27-60. DOI:1007/978-3-030-76363-3_2
  • Orhan, E., Yılmaz, G., & Türker Bayrak, Ö. (2025). Coexistence of Urban Nightlife Activities with Residential Areas: A Mixed-Use Neighborhood Case from Denizli, Türkiye. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 151(2), 05025006. https://doi.org/10.1061/JUPDDM.UPENG-5193
  • Pinke-Sziva, I., Smith, M., Olt, G., & Berezvai, Z. (2019). Overtourism and the night-time economy: A case study of Budapest. International Journal of Tourism Cities, 5(1), 1-16.
  • Plyushteva, A., & Boussauw, K. (2020). Does night-time public transport contribute to inclusive night mobility? Exploring Sofia's night bus network from a gender perspective. Transport Policy, 87, 41-50. DOI:1016/j.tranpol.2020.01.002
  • Rakonjac, I., Zorić, A., Rakonjac, I., Milošević, J., Marić, J., & Furundžić, D. (2022). Increasing the Livability of Open Public Spaces during Nighttime: The Importance of Lighting in Waterfront Areas. Sustainability, 14(10), 6058. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14106058
  • Ramlee, M., Omar, D., Yunus, R. M., & Samadi, Z. (2015). Revitalization of urban public spaces: An overview. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 201, 360-367.
  • Ramesh, A., D. K. Banwet, and R. Shankar. 2010. “Modeling the barriers of supply chain collaboration.” J. Modell. Manage. 5 (2): 176–193.
  • Saadeghi bakhsh, alireza, estelaji, alireza, Sarvar, Rahim. (2020), Economic and Social Impacts of Nightlife Implementation on Urban Sustainable Development Planning (Case Study: Tehran and Area of Influence), Territory, vol. 16, no. 64, pp. 104-119. (In Persian)
  • Santos, R., Almeida, J., & Pereira, M. (2024). Georeferenced analysis of urban nightlife and noise based on mobile phone data. Applied Sciences, 14(1), 362. https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/14/1/362
  • Spaniol, M. J., & Rowland, N. J. (2019). Defining scenario. Futures & Foresight Science, 1(1), e3.
  • Son, N. N., Thu, N. T. P., Dung, N. Q., Huyen, B. T. T., & Xuan, V. N. (2023). Determinants of the Sustained Development of the Night-Time Economy: The Case of Hanoi, Capital of Vietnam. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 16(8), 351. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16080351
  • Song, H. Y., & Siu, K. W. M. (2011). Social Impact of Innovation in Night Street Furniture: Technological Innovation and Lifestyle Change. International Journal of Science in Society, 2(1). DOI:18848/1836-6236/CGP/v02i01/51229
  • Takmil, A. and Ghane, M. (2024). Assessing Physical-Land Use and Social Indicators in Nightlife and Urban Space Vitality with a Sustainable Development Approach (Case Study: Nasar Historical District, Semnan). Iranian Urban Design Studies, 1(1), 117-140. doi: 10.22099/udsi.2024.51529.1006 (In persian)
  • Weimer-Jehle, W. (2018). Scenario Wizard 4.2. Programm zur qualitativen System-und Szenarioanalyse mit der Cross-Impact-Bilanzanalyse (CIB). Stuttgart.
  • White, W. H. (2017). The social life of small urban spaces (A. Zargar, Trans.). Tehran: Elm va Farhang Press. (In Persian)
  • Zhang, R., Chen, S., Xu, S., Law, R., & Zhang, M. (2022). Research on the sustainable development of urban night tourism economy: a case study of shenzhen city. Frontiers in Sustainable Cities, 4, 870697.

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 17 December 2025
  • Revise Date: 10 February 2026
  • Accept Date: 23 February 2026
  • First Publish Date: 23 February 2026
  • Publish Date: 21 June 2026

Share

How to cite

Statistics